Battery technology is progressing slowly and advances in lithium-metal are not yet commercially available
Federal EV battery incentives pertain to countries with US free trade agreements: Australia, Canada, and Chile
Battery supply is constrained by metal mining and production is limited by complex and costly process technologies
More research and product production methods are imminently needed
Battery production for electric vehicles should be a concern. For one, the US has neither the resources nor the production capacity to meet the demand of EV manufacturers. Second, as a national security concern, not having the requisite production infrastructure to support energy transformation leaves the US vulnerable to economic decline and energy price increases. Third, to navigate energy transformation it’s imperative to establish battery production for grid stability and resiliency, particularly when introducing renewable energies.
Currently, lithium-ion batteries are the core foundation for EVs and most vehicle manufacturers are planning to transition to all elective vehicles in the near future. California might ban the sale of new cars running only on gasoline by 2035. The issue is the production of EVs is inextricably linked to the availability of batteries that are limited by supply constraints in both battery metals and production capacity. Our focus is on battery supply chains and production.
Battery Supply Chains
The big issue around EV batteries is assuring an adequate supply of materials at a reasonable price. To better understand the EV supply chain let’s look at the common raw materials namely metals and their associated costs. The four primary metals in a lithium-ion battery commonly used in most EVs are lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. EV batteries use nickel-manganese-cobalt cathodes, with 60% nickel and 20% of cobalt and manganese.
The US utility grid, comprised of electric generation, transmission (high voltage long distance transport) and distribution (last mile connection to end user) consumes approximately 3.8 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh) with 1.28 trillion kWh in commercial use or roughly 34% of the grid.
In 2021, Electric Vehicles (EV) represented approximately 3% of the registered vehicles in the US. The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration states the average person drives around 13,500 miles every year. The average electric car consumes 34.5 kWh per 100 miles. This works out as 0.346 kWh per mile. https://ecocostsavings.com/electric-car-cost-per-mile/ That amounts to 36 billion kWh or 1% of the electric grid.
Vehicle manufacturers are projecting substantial migration to EVs which will increase the impact on the grid. When EVs account for 25% of total vehicles, an additional 7% of grid capacity will be required.
The required grid buildout will be complicated further by the adding huge numbers of physical EV charging locations. The Federal Government has just allotted $5 billion to assist states that have aggressive charging station construction plans. Bottom line: the EV transformation will have a trillion-dollar impact on the economy — driven by the 30%-to-60% energy efficiency gain of EVs over internal combustion engines.
Currently, there are over 160,000 fueling locations around the country such as gas stations and convenience stores. EV charging units, not individual locations, just a power connector, are estimated to be at around 36,000. What is important to note is that the majority of these legacy EV charging systems are Level 1 and Level 2 type requiring charge times of an hour to go 100 miles. These legacy EV charging systems are not conducive for vehicle commuting behavior. Who can wait an hour to charge their vehicle?
The trend is for next generation fast charge (FC) and extreme fast charge (EFC) EV charging systems that are capable of extending range and providing faster charge times more indicative of the average gas refueling time. The limitation is that the number of FC and EFC charging locations is minute. Tesla operates over 20,000 Supercharger connections globally but only 908 physical US locations.
The bottom line is that the buildout to support fast charging EVs will require extensive capital investment and generation capacity that is further complicated by managing distributed energy resources such as DC power conversion, energy storage and renewable energy.
While EVs are changing the utility landscape, digital transformation – where greater reliance is required by expanding data centers that consume substantially more energy than manufacturing facilities – is consuming energy at an even faster rate. The economics of cloud computing, machine learning, AI chips, and analytics-driven business models are only accelerating this digital transformation and dependence on data centers. When one adds crypto currency mining to the mix, the utility grid will predictably undergo substantial change. At current growth projections, Green Econometrics forecasts that EVs, data centers and crypto mining will require an additional 11% energy generation and grid capacity by 2027.
From the inception of the Industrial Revolution several core ingredients enabled the transformation and growth of industry. Among these core building blocks of the Industrial Revolution namely: access to risk capital, visionary entrepreneurs, available labor, technology, resources and energy. Technology and energy play a crucial role in not only growing industry but enable scale. Technology can open new markets and provide advantage through product differentiation and economies of scale. Energy is literally the fuel that scales operations.
Today technology, built from knowledge and data, is how companies compete. Energy now emerges as even more integral in scaling operations. Just as James Watt developed the first steam powered engine in 1606 commencing the Industrial Revolution, it was the access to available coal with the use of the steam powered pump, invented by Thomas Savery in 1698, that allowed greater access to coal that gave scale to industry.
Most recently, the pending transaction of Salesforce’s (CRM) acquisition of Slack (WORK) after acquiring Tableau last year serves as a reference in valuing the importance of technology is to sustaining market value. The market value of seven companies accounts for 27% of the approximately $31.6 trillion for the S&P 500. Evaluating the industry and market impact of innovative technologies can be viewed through the lens of stock valuations, particularly as it applies to mergers and acquisitions. This article reviews the companies and the technologies from the perspective of market sales opportunity and the economic impact of the technologies based on the price/performance disruption to the industry.
So why are we focusing on energy and data today? Energy, predominantly hydrocarbon fuels such as oil, natural gas and even coal is how people heat their homes and buildings, facilitate transportation, and generate electricity to run lights, computers, machines and equipment. In addition, there is substantial investment focus on the digital economy, Environmental and Social Governance (ESG), and innovative technologies. A common thread among these themes is energy and data.
Data and Energy are the pillars of the digital economy. Energy efficiency can reduce carbon emissions, thereby improve ESG sustainability initiatives. Innovative technologies around energy and data are opening new markets and processes from formulating new business models to structuring and operating businesses.
The climate imperative and investing in energy infrastructure and environmental ESGs are predicted on energy efficiency and relevant performance metrics to evaluate investment allocation decisions. Therefore, our initial emphasis begins with a background on energy consumption with focus on electric consumption trends, carbon footprint, Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, sustainability, electric grid resilience, and technologies that impact energy including Electric Vehicles (EV), energy storage, and Autonomous Driving (AD). Data technologies encompass cloud architecture, Software as a Service (SaaS), Machine Learning (ML) analytics, and the importance of data as the digital transformation gives rise to the digital economy.
Digital Economy Performance Metrics
Before we dive into the financial and competitive analysis, let’s review business models that are disruptive to the status quo. That is are innovative technologies capable of rapid scale and efficiency gains that change the economics of the market and business profitability. In addition, disruptive events, driven primarily by technology, often appear as waves as the adoption of innovative technologies expands through the market.
Prominent technological waves such as the personal computer (PC), followed by the internet and smartphones and most recently social media and cloud computer all manifested themselves in engendering new business models and creating new market opportunities that dramatically changed the status quo among leading companies at the time. We will use the internet and mobile technology waves to explain how the introduction of innovative technologies offering vastly improved means of commerce enabled the development of new services that changed the business landscape.
Most recent advances in technology appear as waves and give rise to new business models and markets. The internet is one example. The internet enables the connection and process of communication over a new channel. The internet allowed one-to-one and one to many communications and the ability to engage, transact and scale using a digital platform that tremendously lowered the cost of engagement. Scale is among the most important attributes of the internet because the cost of digital replication is close to zero.
Mobile and smartphones began a new era in the digital world. The smartphone allowed a large portion of the world to interact with the internet for the first time on a mobile device. The mobile wave provided platform that enabled the introduction of a host of new business models. The introduction of the Apple iPhone gave way to several new services and industries all from your cell phone.
Let’s review the business model impact of innovative technologies as it applies to cost structure.
Cost Structure and Disruptive Innovation
As explained by ARK Investment Management’s Catherine Wood, the rate of cost decline can be used as a proxy for evaluating the disruptive impact of innovative technology. Cost structure improves as unit production expands. As first postulated by Theodore Wright, an aerospace engineer, who postulated that “for every accumulated doubling of aircraft production, costs fell by about 20 percent”. Wright’s Law as it is now known is also called the Learning Curve or Experience Curve and it is found across industries that experience different rates of declining costs.
What is important from the perspective of investment firms such as Ark is that the magnitude of disruptive impact can be gleaned from these declining cost curves. Revenue growth can then be correlated from these declining cost curves. Essentially, demand elasticity and future sales can be derived from the rate of product cost declines.
This is why price/performance and scientific metrics play an important role in evaluating products, services and company competitive positions. For example, the average cellular price per gigabyte (GB) of data is approximately $12.37 in 2020 according to Small business trends. Another example in science, is the physical performance of an LED light assessed by lumens the light output to the amount of energy consumed in watts such as lumens/watt (Lm/W). These metrics are points in time. For more context, the changes over time and magnitude of change provide insight into inflection points, trends, patterns and relationships.
As devices become complex, encompassing separate processors for communications, computing, power, video and various sensors, it is the integration and orchestration of the overall device performance that becomes of greater value to the user. So, price/performance, scientific understanding and economics become more attuned to relationships among these varied and interdependent components.
As digital transformation grows, underlying technology platforms become a core differentiator for key players. Our research reveals that current market leaders need to identify and embrace important new technologies now and adapt to the continuous emergence of new innovative platforms — often through M&A activities. In our full report, we take a look at significant technology disrupters and identify key players to watch.
Two overarching themes, data and energy, inform our approach; and our core premise that drives our innovative technology analysis is that as more commerce commences over digital platforms, more energy is consumed and more data is generated. This lens enables us to identify important emerging trends as well as obstacles to progress; while sorting out the technologies and firms most likely to emerge as winners going forward.
Importantly, our ongoing research reveals that there is also a confluence of interactivity between classes of technology that results in cross dependencies, correlation, cross pollination and scale that creates nuances within each segment. It is our implementation of data collection and analysis between segments, comprehensively addressed in our full report, which adds the insight required for confident decision making. Order your copy now.
In our full report, we identify some of the sectoral trends fueling the new digital economy and the innovative technology companies creating value in our research. Let’s break it down by sector:
Energy Storage – is the key differentiator for electric vehicles (EVs) and the end-to-end mobility solutions of the future. It also plays a vital role in energy efficiency and resiliency. Energy storage is a core technology to address energy efficiency; critical to controlling carbon emissions, grid resiliency, and providing EV charging solutions. Energy storage systems have substantial benefits for energy consumers, including: industrial, commercial, public, and households. From cost reduction to business continuity and equipment protection, proper energy management delivers significant business efficiencies. There are, however, associated high switching costs for energy storage to be considered. Our focus in our full, in-depth report includes thorough analyses of Plug Power (PLUG), Ballard (BLDP), FuelCell (FCEL), Bloom Energy (BE) and QuantumScape (QS)
Cloud Architecture – another key sector we examine, provides a very cost-effective means of providing separate layers of data storage, computing and transactional services to enterprises and agencies where reliability, scalability and availability are critical to performance and the maintenance of a competitive edge. Virtualization services enable separation of hardware and software as well as method for separating data from control planes. Innovative tools including Databricks and recent IPO Snowflake provide scale and data integration to manage cloud services and data analytics. Our focus in this niche includes Alteryx (AYX), Datadog (DDOG) Palantir (PLTR) Splunk (SPLK) C3.ai (AI) and Snowflake (SNOW).
The pandemic, and to a lesser extent, global climate change are accelerating digital transformation in business, industry, agencies and non-governmental organizations. This transformation is also a transition – to a new way of doing business on all levels; to a new way of looking at the impact and footprint of our business and personal activities; and to a new normal, that is not likely to look a lot like what we’re used to. This coming year will see a number of existing trends accelerate, and new developments which will underlie and drive major changes in business and operational models.
This report will look at a number of industry sectors, as well as the impact of digital transformation on the public sector. In depth reports on each of these sectors are available by yearly subscription for $950 by request.
We have to start somewhere, so let’s take a look at the rather dramatic and emblematic transformation now taking place in the automobile/truck manufacturing sector.
A data analytics framework is applicable to insight discovery; provides a roadmap towards innovation; and enables capabilities that can optimize approaches to new business models and opportunities. The following paper provides examples revealing how and why to apply visual analytics for discovery, innovation and evaluating new opportunities.
Discover how waveforms and patterns are applied to science and finance, and how customer usage patterns can reveal new approaches to market micro-segmentation and persona classifications. Lastly we’ll reveal how the deployment of IoT devices across the enterprise fuels data flow in the physical world regarding the performance and conditions of business assets.
Introduction
Our theme is applying visual data analytics as a tool for discovery, innovation and evaluating market opportunities. We show how two metrics, price and volume, are able to convey insight and establish price targets for technical analysis. Why energy consumption patterns and waveforms lend themselves to understanding science and classifying human behavior. How proxy metrics can serve as measures for physical events. Why linking granular visibility into processes and the monitoring of conditions and operating performance help build an advantage in the digital economy.
Green Econometrics relies on visual analytics as a core fabric in our data analytics frameworks because visual analytics are integral to discovery, innovation and new opportunity development. Visual insights are easy to understand – allowing business objective and performance metrics to seamlessly transfer across business units. So how do we do it?
As President Obama takes office, energy efficiency takes center stage. One of he fastest roads to energy efficiency is to reduce consumption and the simplest approach to energy conservation is to change a light bulb.
Compact Fluorescent Light bulbs (CFL) recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) offer substantial savings to homeowners. In the commercial market, lighting fixtures consume the greatest amount of electric energy; three times the energy consumption of air conditioning. According to research report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey lighting consumes the largest amount of electricity in commercial buildings as measured by Kilowatt-hours (KWH) per Square Foot
To calculate KWH, multiply the wattage of your lighting fixture x the yearly hours of operation for your facility divided by 1,000. KWH per square foot provides a useful means of measuring the energy intensity of a building. Just divide KWH by the total square footage of the building.
In an energy audit one can determine the energy intensity of your building as measured by KWH/Sq Ft. Figure 1 illustrates the energy intensity by end use according to the EIA’s report in 2008 Electricity Consumption (kWh) Intensities by End Use.
Figure 1 Lighting Consumes Most Energy
Furthermore, as part of the same research from the EIA, most commercial buildings are not using energy efficient lighting. The study finds that most commercial buildings, even those built after 1980, still rely on legacy incandescent and standard fluorescent light fixtures.
Figure 2 Most Commercial Buildings Lack Energy Efficient Lighting
After your energy audit is complete and one knows their energy intensity the next step is to understand the efficiency of lighting systems. Lighting efficiency is measured in Lumens per Watt and is calculated by dividing the lumen output of the light by the Watts consumed. A lumen is one foot-candle foot-candle falling on one square foot of area.
While lumen output is important in measuring brightness, color temperature, measured in degrees Kelvin, indicates the hue color temperature of the light and is also important in evaluating lighting systems because lighting systems operating near 5500 degrees Kelvin simulate sunlight at noon. Energy efficient lighting fixtures provide twice the lumens per watt of electricity than legacy metal halide fixtures while offering higher color temperature enabling near daylight rendering.
Figure 3 Energy Efficient Lighting
The bottom line is small steps sometimes produce big results. Retrofitting your building with energy efficient lighting systems saves energy, reduces operating expenses, and improves employee productivity and safety, while saving the environment. A 1.3 KWH reduction in power consumption reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 1 pound. Coal generates about half the electric power in the U.S. and produces roughly ¾ of a pound of CO2 for every KWH of electric. In addition, the feasibility of alternative energy such as solar and wind are more viable by reducing energy consumption in buildings.
Ethanol may emit less CO2 and help reduce the demand for foreign oil in the short term, but ethanol and in particular, corn-based ethanol raises food prices, is less efficient than gasoline, diesel, and biodiesel, and is not a substitute for oil.
According to research compiled by National Geographic Magazine , the energy balance of corn ethanol, (the amount hydrocarbon fuel required to produce a unit of ethanol) is 1-to-1.3 whereas for sugar cane ethanol the ratio is 1-to-8. This suggests corn-based ethanol requires significantly more energy to produce than sugar cane ethanol. Corn ethanol is only marginally positive.
A major issue with corn ethanol is its impact on corn prices and subsequently, food prices in general. It is the price of oil that is impacting the price of corn because nearly all ethanol produced in the U.S. is derived from corn. Therefore, corn prices are inextricably linked to oil prices as well as to the supply and demand of corn as food and feedstock. Corn Prices while volatile and impacted from weather and other variables appear to follow the rising price of oil as illustrated in Figure 1. In turn, corn prices are also influencing other commodity prices where corn is used for feed for livestock.
The rising motor vehicle usage in China and India is escalating the already tenuous situation in the oil markets. With ethanol tied to oil prices we are beginning to see corn prices exacerbate the inflationary pressures at the retail level. Over the last year consumers are paying more for food with large increases in the prices of eggs, cereal poultry, pork, and beef which are tied to corn.
Figure 1 Corn Prices
Senate legislation for Renewable Fuels Standard calls for ethanol production to increase to 36 billion gallons by 2022 with 21 billion derived from as cellulosic material such as plant fiber and switchgrass . Corn is expected to comprise 42% of the ethanol production in 2002 from virtually all today. The fact is that ethanol production at its current level of 6 billion gallons equates to only 4% of our gasoline usage and is already impacting food prices. Gasoline consumption in 2005 amounted to 3.3 billion barrels or 140 billion gallons. Current estimates put gasoline consumption at 144 billion gallons a year in 2007. Even if vehicles could run entirely on ethanol, there is not enough corn harvest to substitute our demand for oil. We need a cohesive and coordinated effort using multiple technologies to develop alternative energies to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
Performance
According to Renewable Fuels Association ETHANOL FACTS:
ENGINE PERFORMANCE, ethanol offers higher engine performance with octane rating of 113 in comparison to 87 for gasoline and has a long history in the racing circuit. In 2007, the Indy Racing League, sponsors of the Indianapolis 500 started using ethanol in racecars. However, the higher engine performance may come at a cost of lower fuel efficiency.
Table 1 Specific Energy, Energy Density & CO2
Efficiency
Gasoline offers 56% higher energy efficiency (specific energy) over ethanol as measured by kilo-joules per gram (kj/g). (As a reference: 1 kilowatt-hour = 3,600 kilojoules = 3,412 British Thermal Units) Biodiesel with 35 kj/g is 33% more energy efficient than ethanol at 24.7 kj/g.
In terms of energy density, ethanol would require larger storage capacity to meet the same energy output of gasoline diesel, and biodiesel. Ethanol requires a storage tank 48% larger than gasoline and 41% larger than diesel for the same energy output.
Please see Hydrogen Properties and Energy Units
For a quick review of Specific Energy and Energy Density – (Molecular Weight Calculator) the specific energy of a fuel relates the inherent energy of the fuel relative to its weight and is measured in kilo-joules per gram.
CO2 Emission
The molecular weight of CO2 is approximately 44 with two oxygen molecules with an approximately weight of 32 and one carbon atom with a weight of 12. During the combustion process, oxygen is taken from the atmosphere producing more CO2 then the actual weight of the fuel. In the combustion process a gallon of gasoline weighing a little over six pounds produces 22 pounds of CO2.
CO2 emission is a function of the carbon concentration in the fuel and the combustion process. During combustion ethanol produces approximately 13 pounds of CO2 per gallon. Gasoline and diesel produce approximately 22 and 20 pounds per gallon, respectively. CO2 emissions per gallon appear quite favorable for ethanol. However, the results are less dramatic when CO2 emissions are compared per unit of energy produced.
Figure 2 CO2 per KWH
When measured in pounds of CO2 per kilowatt-hours (KWH) of energy, the results show ethanol producing 6% less CO2 than diesel or biodiesel and 5% less than gasoline. In the case of ethanol, the lower specific energy of the fuel negates the benefit of its lower CO2 emissions. Meaning more ethanol is consumed to travel the same distance as gasoline or diesel thereby limiting the benefit of its lower CO2 emissions.
The bottom line is ethanol does not ameliorate our dependence on foreign oil and while it demonstrates higher performance for racecars, it is still less efficient than gasoline diesel, and biodiesel, and diverts food production away from providing for people and livestock. The reality is there are special interest groups that obfuscate the facts about ethanol for their own benefit. The real solution to our imminent energy crisis is alternative energies including cellulosic ethanol, solar, hydrogen fuel cells, and wind.
Improving economics and high market valuations should help drive research for alternative energy. With the release of Q3/07 financials, it’s clear that the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) suppliers is improving. Some of the leading pure play publicly traded PV stocks are demonstrating significant improvements in financial performance that should drive further investment into solar and green technology. The improving economics of solar should continue to drive further investment into alternative energy companies as venture capital firms and Wall Street find that alternative energy is a significant secular trend with sustainable economic foundation.
Most visible among the solar PV suppliers is First Solar (FSLR) with y/y revenue growth for Q3/07 increasing 290% and gross margins exceeding 50% and operating margins above 30%. FSLR’s management was clear in articulating that these strong Q3 numbers reflect ramping on of its German manufacturing facility and would not be sustainable. However, with gross margins exceeding 50% and operating margins above 30% Wall Street takes notice and rewards the firm with valuation multiple envious of leading technology companies such as Google (GOOG) and Cisco Systems (CSCO).
Figure 1 Revenues, Margins, and Capacity
The stronger financial performance of solar PV suppliers is significant because it improves the viability of the solar PV business model thereby attracting more investors and in turn drives funding for alternative energy start up companies. FSLR went public in November 2006 with a closing price of $24.74 on its first day. With a closing price one year later of $212.63, FSLR offers investors a yearly return of 759%. The attractive return generated by solar stocks tends to attract more investors and drives market valuations higher thus feeding the flow of additional venture capital funding.
In terms of market valuation FSLR trades at a significant premium to most companies in the S&P 500 as well as leading technology companies including GOOG and CSCO. . Most solar PV companies trade at higher market valuation multiples than CSCO and GOOG. Both FSLR and Sun Power (SPWR) trade at premium price-to-sales (P/S) and price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) multiples in comparison to some leading technology stocks. In terms of PEG ratios, FSLR and SPWR trade at 2.9x and 2.2x respectively while CSCO and GOOG trade at 1.3x and 1.2X, respectively. In comparison, the S&P 500 index trades at a PEG of 0.8x while the technology and energy segments trade at 0.6x and 2.2x, respectively. These high market valuations prove the venture capital community with high exit values on their current crop of alternative energy investments. Please see Figure 2.
It is this premium market valuation multiple that suggests the importance of alternative energy. Wall Street tends to be a leading indicator and keen in its ability to identify secular trends. Major trends command premium valuations and reward venture capital with attractive exist strategies. Wall Street rewards cash flow growth fueling further venture capital funding that in turn, fuels the flow of intellectual and financial capital. The value migration measured by price-to-sales multiples and illustrated by A. Slywotsky in his book Value Migration provide a framework to gauge the significance of trend towards alternative energies. Capital gravitates to the business model that creates economic value and is measured by a stock’s price-to-sale ratio. By that measure solar stocks is where the value is headed.
Figure 2 Price-to-Sales Ratio
The bottom line is that high market valuations attract research funding and brain power. Rising oil prices, rapid industry growth, and high public market valuations of solar PV companies, should act to attract further venture capital funding of alternative energy companies. Increased solar funding should translate into increased research and talent migration that could improve solar efficiency and reduce costs that in turn could bring solar to electric grid parity.
After reviewing some of the details of Honda’s experimental solar-power hydrogen refueling station in Torrance, CA and its fuel cell vehicle several questions concerning efficiency and practicality come to mind. It most be noted that solar and hydrogen don’t emit harmful byproducts such as carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide so both technologies are important to our energy security. First let’s look at the efficiency of hydrogen and second the efficiency of generating hydrogen from solar.
As we learned from science class, hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe. Hydrogen has approximately 3 times the energy per unit mass as gasoline and requires about 4 times the storage volume for a given amount of energy according to a Hydrogen Energy report from Stanford University. In further review of additional information on hydrogen we are also making some adjustments to our fuel-ranking table.
We are revising Table 1 that was used in our post of October 3, 2007 for data on the energy density for hydrogen from 2.5 kilowatt-hours (KWH) per gallon to 10.1 KWH/gal and is reflected in the revised Table 1 below. The discrepancy lies in measuring the weight of hydrogen in liquid volume. We are calculating the energy density of hydrogen using the high heat values of hydrogen of 61,000 British Thermal Units (BTUs) and a weight 0.57 pounds per gallon from the Stanford Hydrogen Report.
As a reference: 1 KWH = 3,600 kilojoules = 3,412 BTUs
Revised Table 1 Specific Energy, Energy Density & CO2
Hydrogen offers tremendous energy potential, but as we see from Table 1, hydrogen has a low energy density meaning it requires a large storage container to make it practical for use in a motor vehicle. Several car manufacturers including GM and Toyota have developed hydrogen vehicles. Hydrogen can be used in internal combustion engines replacing gasoline or in fuel cells to generate electric to power the vehicle. However, there are some limitations to the current technology that may limit the economic viability hydrogen powered vehicles in the near term. But there are no detrimental emissions with hydrogen as apposed to hydrocarbon fuels thus providing tremendous benefits as vehicle efficiency improves.
Honda’s solar-powered hydrogen fueling station takes nearly a week in sun to produce enough hydrogen to power Honda’s FCX concept hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Honda employs a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) that converts hydrogen to electric that in turn, powers the vehicle. The Honda FCX fuel cell vehicle has two fuel tanks that can be filled with up to 156.6 liters of hydrogen or about 43 gallons that offers 430km (267 miles) driving range. The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle provides a reasonable driving range, but with a fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon (MPG), suggests more research is needed.
BMW’s Hydrogen 7 can travel 125 miles on hydrogen and 300 on gasoline before refueling. In tests the BMW 745h liquid-hydrogen test vehicle has 75 kg tank has a Hydrogen Fuel Efficiency of 10 km/liter or about 25.2 MPG and cruising speed of 110 MPH. Not too bad for an internal combustion engine that is able to run on gasoline or hydrogen.
Figure 1 Specific Energy
Given the changes to hydrogen’s energy density we are also adjusting hydrogen density (Figure 2) to reflect liquid hydrogen and high-energy value as noted by Hydrogen Properties College of the Desert.
Revised Figure 2 Energy Density: KWH per Gallon
We still have more questions given hydrogen’s very high specific energy, (3 times that of gasoline) and low energy density (4 times the volume of gasoline). Hydrogen is more efficient then petroleum fuel, yet when used as a fuel cell in a vehicle Honda’s MPG of 6.5 MPG is quite low. The fuel efficiency of BMW’s Hydrogen 7 of 25.2 MPG is only at parity with gasoline.
The efficiency of using solar energy to generate hydrogen may not be the most efficient method. One report from Walt Pyle, Jim Healy, and Reynaldo Cortez Solar Hydrogen Production by Electrolysis indicated that a 1-kilowatt solar photovoltaic device could generate 1 cubic meter of hydrogen in 5.9 hours. Essentially, 5.9 KWHs from a 1KW solar cell produces 1 cubic meter of hydrogen. We know that a pound of hydrogen in liquid state equals approximately 61,000 BTUs (51,500 BTUs at low heat value) or 17.9 KWH.
Research at Caltech, suggests that photoelectrochemistry The Lewis Group may offer a more efficient means of generating hydrogen. We will continue to explore solar efficiency and hydrogen fuel cells to evaluate the economics of alternative energy.
The bottom line is that our dependence on foreign oil is the biggest threat to national security and without cultivation of alternative energies we continue to endure an untenable situation. Further research into solar and hydrogen fuel cells could significantly ameliorate our dependence on oil.
With the rapid growth in vehicle use around the world, it would be nice to know what are the most efficiency, economic, and least carbon emitting fuels. The number of motor vehicles on the road is increasing rapidly. The number of cars and trucks in China is up over 3,600 percent in the last thirty years. Data from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Ward’s Communications, Ward’s World Motor Vehicle Data provide an interesting view of the growth in motor vehicle use.
Figure 1 China Truck and Car Registration
While the U.S. still accounts for the largest motor vehicle market, the rest of the world is quickly accelerating towards more vehicles on the road. Figure 2 shows the number of vehicle registrations over the last thirty years for China, the U.S. and the rest of the world (ROW). Vehicle registration growth in the U.S. has been growing at a 2% per year rate from 1975 to 2005. The largest growth in vehicle registration is in China and India where growth in the last ten years is up 195% and 99%, respectively.
Figure 2 World Vehicle Registration
With an explosion in motor vehicle use, what fuel should we be using to better performance and reduce emissions? Let’s go back to two basic concepts of energy: Specific Energy and Energy Density. For a quick review, (Molecular Weight Calculator) the specific energy of a fuel relates the inherent energy of the fuel relative to its weight. Specific energy is often measured in kilo-joules per gram (kj/g). One kilo-joule equals one kilowatt-second meaning one kilowatt-hour (KWH) equals to 3,600 kilo-joules. Also one British Thermal Unit (BTU) equals 1,055.05585 joules. A reference to the specific energy and energy values of most fuels can be found at Hydrogen Properties
Figure 3 Specific Energy
By specific energy hydrogen is the clear leader. However, vehicles must inherently carry their fuel supply, so to determine which fuel is best for motor vehicles, energy density of the fuel is the next measurement. While vehicle fuel efficiency is dependent upon a number of factors such as engine type and performance, make and model of vehicle, road conditions and fuel, we are focusing on fuel energy.
Figure 4 Energy Density: KWH per Gallon
Figure 4 illustrates how fuels compare with respect to energy density, that is, energy relative the container size. We again are using KWH to measure energy value. Hydrogen, because it is so light, requires 15.9 times the container volume to provide the same energy as diesel. Biodiesel provides more power per gallon than Ethanol, which requires 1.6x, the container size for the same amount of energy as diesel. Biodiesel and diesel are relatively similar with respect to energy density. While both Ethanol and Biodiesel are both form of renewable energy, Biodiesel offers more bang per gallon. Before we are able invest more into hydrogen and solar energy to bring alternative energy into parity with conventional hydrocarbon fuels, diesel and biodiesel offer better energy efficiency among hydrocarbon fuels.
Table 1 Specific Energy, Energy Density & CO2
As a final assessment of hydrocarbon fuels, let’s compare carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions among our list of fuels. CO2 emission is a function of carbon concentration and combustion process of the fuel. Fuel energy research at the Department of Environmental Protection (EPA) and DOE indicate 99% to nearly 100% combustion of with fuels used in vehicles. That means almost all of the atoms in the fuel are converted to either heat or byproducts such as CO2.
Figure 5 illustrates how much CO2 is produced per gallon of fuel. Remember the molecular weight of CO2 is about 44 with oxygen contributor nearly 73% of the weight and is taken from our atmosphere during combustion. This is why more CO2 is created than the actual weight of the fuel. A second factor needs to be considered when evaluating CO2 emission and that is how much CO2 is produced per energy value. In comparing CO2 emissions per KWH of energy, Ethanol produces about 7% less CO2 than diesel or Biodiesel and 5% less than gasoline. Neither of these estimates considers the emissions from the processing to produce Ethanol or Bioiesel.
Figure 5 CO2 per Gallon
The bottom line is Ethanol and Biodiesel provide marginal relief to our energy crisis with biodiesel offering better efficiency and Ethanol marginally less CO2 missions. The only real solution to our imminent energy crisis is alternative energies such as solar, hydrogen fuel cells, and wind.
