Archives 2014

Advances in technology such as seismic imaging with Dawson Geophysical and horizontal drilling with Schlumberger have dramatically changed the economics of oil and gas extraction. The change in oil economics is so profound that the cost structure of hydrocarbon fuels will reverberate through the global energy market and impact pricing of renewables energies and investment decisions. So profound are these changes that the US has surpassed Saudi Arabia and emerged as the world’s largest oil producer.

With the price of oil falling as a result of large production gains in US oil production. The price of oil is may fall below $40 per barrel according to an article in Barron’s The Case for $35 a barrel Oil suggesting further oil price declines are possible.

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Technology and innovation drive productivity, but transaction costs arising from technology implementation limit gains. Analytics and decision science could provide the means to tame transaction costs and improve productivity. Transaction costs were defined by Ronald Coase in “The Nature of the Firm,” published in 1937 and who earned a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1991.

Access to and sharing of information drives competitive advantage. Businesses often require global sourcing of physical and digital resources and collaborative workgroups often span several nations across the globe. Information flow is an integral aspect of collaborative workflows and global supply chains. Data serves as the foundation for business models where competencies are achieved through analytics. To achieve visibility and granularity into business processes, greater amounts of data are generated.

By reducing transaction costs, advances in technology and innovation can translate into higher productivity; lower operating costs, and a greater supply curve shift. At the same time, the network effect, enhanced consumer utility found with increasing number of users, may push demand.

The takeaways are: 1) analytics provide a process to reduce costs and improve productivity; 2) a process to monitor, measure, and benchmark performance; and 3) enable a firm to assimilate new technologies and manage uncertanties.
How Analytics can Improve Productivity

The turnaround in oil and gas production appears to create a tailwind to drive further economic growth as seen in vehicle and housing sales. Recent advances in technology such as Seismic imaging with companies such as Dawson Geophysical (DWSN) and horizontal drilling with industry leaders like Schlumberger Limited (SLB) (through its acquisitions of Smith International and SII’s acquisition of W-H Energy Services) have dramatically change the economics of oil and gas extraction and subsequently, the energy picture in the US.

Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), EIA the improving production levels for oil and natural gas suggest the energy headwind driven by high oil prices may lead to a tailwind. Advances in technology Seismic imaging, hydraulic fracturing, and horizontal drilling have enabled production of shale oil to be more economically attractive.

Figure 1 US Oil Production

High-energy prices have had a negative impact on the US economy. With improvements in oil and natural gas production, the economy should experience a more favorable outlook. Recent data from the housing sector and vehicle sales suggests the level of activity is improving.

Figure 2 US Vehicle Sales

Since the Great Recession starting in 2008, vehicle sales in the US have remained substantially below 15 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate until 2012. According to data from Motor Intelligence Autodata the level of vehicle sales has maintained sales above the 15 million units through January 2014 indicating positive economic improvement in the car and truck industries.

Figure 3 US Housing Inventory

The US housing market has been a drag on the economy since the financial crisis and now housing is beginning to show signs of improvement. Latest information from Association of Realtors shows the existing inventory of houses on the market remains at an acceptable level consistent with the inventory levels before the financial crisis began.

While efforts to expand renewable energy require further support, the positive effects of less reliance on foreign oil are deemed positive.